Main
Women's Bantamweight
Bethe Correia vs Marion Reneau
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bethe Correia
Marion Reneau
72%
28%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
34
Age
Δ 6y
40
12-6-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
10-8-1
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Correia: 43 sig / 2 TD ·
Reneau: 75 sig / 0 TD
Bethe Correia
Marion Reneau
55
Sig strikes landed
52
113
Sig strikes attempted
128
72
Total strikes landed
73
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
160s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Bethe Correia
"Pitbull"
12-6-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
Blue corner
W1
Marion Reneau
"The Belizean Bruiser"
10-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—