Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rashad Evans
Daniel Kelly
66%
34%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
37
Age
Δ 2y
39
19-9-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
14-4
L2
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Evans: 53 sig / 1 TD ·
Kelly: 74 sig / 0 TD
Rashad Evans
Daniel Kelly
37
Sig strikes landed
35
93
Sig strikes attempted
90
51
Total strikes landed
56
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.8
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
Blue corner
W3
Daniel Kelly
14-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—