Back to UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Tyson Pedro vs Paul Craig

UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Tyson Pedro
Paul Craig
57% 43%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
26
Age
Δ 4y
29
11-5
Career record
Δ 7 pp
18-10-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pedro: 23 sig / 0 TD · Craig: 12 sig / 0 TD
Tyson Pedro
Paul Craig
17
Sig strikes landed
16
35
Sig strikes attempted
37
31
Total strikes landed
24
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
139s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
38%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Tyson Pedro

11-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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Blue corner
W1

Paul Craig

"Bearjew"
18-10-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—