Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs Randa Markos
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne
·Scotiabank Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Randa Markos
86%
14%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 0"
64"
29
Age
Δ 2y
32
21-8
Career record
Δ 28 pp
11-13-1
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Esparza: 32 sig / 4 TD ·
Markos: 48 sig / 0 TD
Carla Esparza
Randa Markos
39
Sig strikes landed
29
87
Sig strikes attempted
79
78
Total strikes landed
56
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
294s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
21-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
L1
Randa Markos
"Quiet Storm"
11-13-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—