Prelims1
Middleweight
Jack Marshman vs Thiago Santos
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne
·Scotiabank Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jack Marshman
Thiago Santos
75%
25%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
24-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-12
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Marshman: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 27 sig / 1 TD
Jack Marshman
Thiago Santos
34
Sig strikes landed
35
77
Sig strikes attempted
97
42
Total strikes landed
41
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
54s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jack Marshman
"The Hammer"
24-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
L2
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
22-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—