Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Jim Miller
75%
25%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
28
Age
Δ 5y
34
30-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
40-19
L1
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Poirier: 97 sig / 3 TD ·
Miller: 71 sig / 1 TD
Dustin Poirier
Jim Miller
49
Sig strikes landed
31
99
Sig strikes attempted
72
60
Total strikes landed
38
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
113s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
Blue corner
W3
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
20 fights · 13-6
Last 5
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—