Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan LaFlare
Roan Carneiro
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
33
Age
Δ 5y
39
15-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
22-11
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
LaFlare: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Carneiro: 19 sig / 0 TD
Ryan LaFlare
Roan Carneiro
32
Sig strikes landed
30
94
Sig strikes attempted
77
58
Total strikes landed
44
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.8
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
211s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ryan LaFlare
15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W1
Roan Carneiro
"Jucao"
22-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—