Main
Lightweight
Abel Trujillo vs James Vick
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Abel Trujillo
James Vick
51%
49%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
16-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-6
W3
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Trujillo: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Vick: 25 sig / 1 TD
Abel Trujillo
James Vick
24
Sig strikes landed
31
69
Sig strikes attempted
80
35
Total strikes landed
40
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Abel Trujillo
"Killa"
16-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
Blue corner
L1
James Vick
"The Texecutioner"
13-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—