Main
Women's Strawweight
Alexa Grasso vs Felice Herrig
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexa Grasso
Felice Herrig
84%
16%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
24
Age
Δ 9y
32
18-5-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
15-10
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grasso: 80 sig / 0 TD ·
Herrig: 60 sig / 2 TD
Alexa Grasso
Felice Herrig
36
Sig strikes landed
30
81
Sig strikes attempted
79
71
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
181s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexa Grasso
18-5-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
15-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—