Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
John Moraga
Sergio Pettis
39%
61%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
33
Age
Δ 9y
23
19-8
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-5
L2
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moraga: 33 sig / 1 TD ·
Pettis: 48 sig / 2 TD
John Moraga
Sergio Pettis
35
Sig strikes landed
54
95
Sig strikes attempted
123
49
Total strikes landed
72
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
John Moraga
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
Blue corner
W2
Sergio Pettis
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—