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Prelims2 Heavyweight

Dmitrii Smoliakov vs Cyril Asker

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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Dmitrii Smoliakov
Cyril Asker
49% 51%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
9-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
9-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smoliakov: 5 sig / 0 TD · Asker: 19 sig / 1 TD
Dmitrii Smoliakov
Cyril Asker
35
Sig strikes landed
30
56
Sig strikes attempted
57
48
Total strikes landed
63
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
98s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Dmitrii Smoliakov

"The Lifeguard"
9-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
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Blue corner
L1

Cyril Asker

"Silverback"
9-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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