Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tim Kennedy
Kelvin Gastelum
46%
54%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
37
Age
Δ 12y
25
18-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-11
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Kennedy: 45 sig / 3 TD ·
Gastelum: 62 sig / 0 TD
Tim Kennedy
Kelvin Gastelum
37
Sig strikes landed
50
93
Sig strikes attempted
122
52
Total strikes landed
70
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
191s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Kennedy
18-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
W1
Kelvin Gastelum
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—