Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Matt Brown
84%
16%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
37-17
Career record
Δ 12 pp
26-20
W3
Current streak
L2
22
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cerrone: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Brown: 70 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Matt Brown
59
Sig strikes landed
46
105
Sig strikes attempted
90
71
Total strikes landed
55
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.70
Knockdowns
0.20
80s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
22 fights · 18-4
Last 5
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
L2
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—