🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Max Holloway vs Anthony Pettis
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
·Scotiabank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Anthony Pettis
77%
23%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
25
Age
Δ 5y
30
28-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-10
W8
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Holloway: 94 sig / 2 TD ·
Pettis: 53 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Anthony Pettis
77
Sig strikes landed
54
169
Sig strikes attempted
135
97
Total strikes landed
58
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
93s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
Blue corner
W1
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
25-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—