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🏆 Title fight Main Flyweight

Demetrious Johnson vs Tim Elliott

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
Tim Elliott
91% 9%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
28-3-1
Career record
Δ 30 pp
22-15-1
W8
Current streak
L3
14
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Johnson: 28 sig / 5 TD · Elliott: 24 sig / 4 TD
Demetrious Johnson
Tim Elliott
78
Sig strikes landed
41
154
Sig strikes attempted
114
124
Total strikes landed
71
3.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
7.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
388s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W8

Demetrious Johnson

"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 14 fights · 12-1
Last 5
W UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
W UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
W UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
W UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
W UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
Blue corner
L3

Tim Elliott

22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
L UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
L UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
W UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…