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Yusuke Kasuya vs Alexander Volkanovski

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson ·Rod Laver Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Yusuke Kasuya
Alexander Volkanovski
20% 80%
Why
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Kasuya: 4 sig / 1 TD · Volkanovski: 50 sig / 3 TD
Yusuke Kasuya
Alexander Volkanovski
32
Sig strikes landed
44
84
Sig strikes attempted
91
45
Total strikes landed
63
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
56s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Yusuke Kasuya

9-4
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
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Blue corner

Alexander Volkanovski

"The Great"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28