Main
Lightweight
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Tony Ferguson
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
·Arena CDMX
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Tony Ferguson
57%
43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
32-18
Career record
Δ 7 pp
27-11
L1
Current streak
W8
17
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Dos Anjos: 121 sig / 0 TD ·
Ferguson: 199 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Tony Ferguson
46
Sig strikes landed
61
99
Sig strikes attempted
148
54
Total strikes landed
65
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rafael Dos Anjos
32-18
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
17 fights · 13-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
Blue corner
W8
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 11-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—