Main
Featherweight
Renan Barao vs Phillipe Nover
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Renan Barao
Phillipe Nover
95%
5%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
34-10
Career record
Δ 25 pp
11-9-1
L2
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barao: 64 sig / 3 TD ·
Nover: 39 sig / 0 TD
Renan Barao
Phillipe Nover
48
Sig strikes landed
32
118
Sig strikes attempted
92
71
Total strikes landed
48
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
161s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
34-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Phillipe Nover
"The Filipino Assassin"
11-9-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—