Main
Lightweight
Dustin Poirier vs Michael Johnson
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Michael Johnson
91%
9%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 3y
30
31-10
Career record
Δ 21 pp
25-21
W4
Current streak
L2
15
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Poirier: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 14 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Michael Johnson
57
Sig strikes landed
54
129
Sig strikes attempted
133
70
Total strikes landed
57
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
Blue corner
L2
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—