Back to UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
Main Middleweight

Trevor Smith vs Joseph Gigliotti

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres ·Delta Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Trevor Smith
Joseph Gigliotti
38% 62%
Why
36
Age
Δ 13y
23
W1
Current streak
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6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smith: 42 sig / 4 TD · Gigliotti: 15 sig / 1 TD
Trevor Smith
Joseph Gigliotti
39
Sig strikes landed
32
71
Sig strikes attempted
74
62
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
232s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Trevor Smith

"Hot Sauce"
16-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
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Blue corner

Joseph Gigliotti

"Capo"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23