Back to UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Viktor Pesta vs Marcin Tybura

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres ·Delta Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Viktor Pesta
Marcin Tybura
45% 55%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
10-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
27-12
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Pesta: 3 sig / 0 TD · Tybura: 15 sig / 0 TD
Viktor Pesta
Marcin Tybura
33
Sig strikes landed
40
74
Sig strikes attempted
72
59
Total strikes landed
71
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
6.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
283s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Viktor Pesta

10-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
Blue corner
L1

Marcin Tybura

"Tybur"
27-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—