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Yair Rodriguez vs Alex Caceres

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres ·Delta Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Yair Rodriguez
Alex Caceres
82% 18%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
22-6
Career record
Δ 19 pp
22-15
W4
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
14

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Rodriguez: 120 sig / 1 TD · Caceres: 62 sig / 1 TD
Yair Rodriguez
Alex Caceres
48
Sig strikes landed
44
119
Sig strikes attempted
98
60
Total strikes landed
57
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
142s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W4

Yair Rodriguez

"El Pantera"
22-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W2

Alex Caceres

"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 14 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
L UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—