🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic vs Alistair Overeem
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
·Quicken Loans Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Stipe Miocic
Alistair Overeem
36%
64%
Why
80"
Reach
80"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
21-5
Career record
Δ 9 pp
48-19
W3
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Miocic: 34 sig / 1 TD ·
Overeem: 9 sig / 0 TD
Stipe Miocic
Alistair Overeem
55
Sig strikes landed
37
104
Sig strikes attempted
73
76
Total strikes landed
46
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.40
193s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Stipe Miocic
21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
W4
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—