Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cesar Arzamendia
Damien Brown
65%
35%
Why
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
8-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
17-13
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Arzamendia: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Brown: 22 sig / 0 TD
Cesar Arzamendia
Damien Brown
22
Sig strikes landed
29
57
Sig strikes attempted
47
43
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
163s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cesar Arzamendia
"Goku"
8-4
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
Blue corner
L1
Damien Brown
"Beatdown"
17-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—