Prelims1
Welterweight
Vicente Luque vs Alvaro Herrera Mendoza
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vicente Luque
Alvaro Herrera Mendoza
77%
23%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
25
Age
Δ 2y
26
25-12-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-6
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Luque: 25 sig / 4 TD ·
Herrera Mendoza: 12 sig / 0 TD
Vicente Luque
Alvaro Herrera Mendoza
22
Sig strikes landed
20
47
Sig strikes attempted
50
45
Total strikes landed
30
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
155s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
25-12-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
Blue corner
W1
Alvaro Herrera Mendoza
"Chango"
10-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—