Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Thiago Santos
94%
6%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
31
Age
Δ 2y
32
43-6-2
Career record
Δ 17 pp
23-11
W1
Current streak
W4
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mousasi: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Santos: 5 sig / 0 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Thiago Santos
30
Sig strikes landed
23
64
Sig strikes attempted
63
41
Total strikes landed
28
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
136s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gegard Mousasi
43-6-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
Blue corner
W4
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—