Main
Lightweight
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Thibault Gouti
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
·TD Place Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Thibault Gouti
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
11-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
12-6
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Aubin-Mercier: 44 sig / 3 TD ·
Gouti: 29 sig / 0 TD
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Thibault Gouti
39
Sig strikes landed
38
75
Sig strikes attempted
95
60
Total strikes landed
47
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
220s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
Blue corner
L1
Thibault Gouti
"GT"
12-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—