Main
Welterweight
Donald Cerrone vs Patrick Cote
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
·TD Place Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Patrick Cote
76%
24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
33
Age
Δ 3y
36
37-17
Career record
Δ 0 pp
24-11
W1
Current streak
W3
20
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cerrone: 73 sig / 2 TD ·
Cote: 46 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Patrick Cote
50
Sig strikes landed
41
103
Sig strikes attempted
96
64
Total strikes landed
54
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
91s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
20 fights · 16-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W3
Patrick Cote
"The Predator"
24-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—