Main
Welterweight
Rory MacDonald vs Stephen Thompson
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
·TD Place Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rory MacDonald
Stephen Thompson
79%
21%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
19-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
18-9-1
L1
Current streak
W6
12
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
MacDonald: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Thompson: 110 sig / 0 TD
Rory MacDonald
Stephen Thompson
64
Sig strikes landed
57
137
Sig strikes attempted
131
75
Total strikes landed
63
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
134s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
19-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
Blue corner
W6
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—