Main
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem vs Andrei Arlovski
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
·Ahoy Rotterdam
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Andrei Arlovski
92%
8%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
36
Age
Δ 1y
37
48-19
Career record
Δ 14 pp
34-25
W3
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Overeem: 23 sig / 1 TD ·
Arlovski: 16 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Andrei Arlovski
28
Sig strikes landed
26
51
Sig strikes attempted
52
37
Total strikes landed
36
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34-25
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—