Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Glover Teixeira
Rashad Evans
85%
15%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
36
Age
Δ 0y
37
34-9
Career record
Δ 14 pp
19-9-1
W2
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Teixeira: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Evans: 7 sig / 0 TD
Glover Teixeira
Rashad Evans
48
Sig strikes landed
38
101
Sig strikes attempted
91
68
Total strikes landed
55
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
94s
Control time
199s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Glover Teixeira
34-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
Blue corner
L1
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—