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Prelims2 Middleweight

Alessio Di Chirico vs Bojan Velickovic

UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos ·Zagreb Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Alessio Di Chirico
Bojan Velickovic
48% 52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Di Chirico: 65 sig / 2 TD · Velickovic: 45 sig / 1 TD
Alessio Di Chirico
Bojan Velickovic
34
Sig strikes landed
36
73
Sig strikes attempted
76
47
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Alessio Di Chirico

"Manzo"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Bojan Velickovic

"Serbian Steel"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27