Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Emmanuel Sanchez
Daniel Pineda
85%
15%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
26
Age
Δ 5y
30
W2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Emmanuel Sanchez
Daniel Pineda
61
Sig strikes landed
49
156
Sig strikes attempted
135
78
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
116s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Emmanuel Sanchez
"El Matador"
16-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
Bellator 145: Vengeance
—
W
Bellator 143: Warren vs. Davis
—
L
Bellator 139: Kongo vs. Volkov
—
W
Bellator 135: Warren vs. Galvao
—
Blue corner
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31