Prelims2
Lightweight
Alan Patrick vs Damien Brown
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
·Brisbane Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alan Patrick
Damien Brown
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Patrick: 25 sig / 5 TD ·
Brown: 15 sig / 1 TD
Alan Patrick
Damien Brown
30
Sig strikes landed
30
77
Sig strikes attempted
61
51
Total strikes landed
38
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
139s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
15-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
Blue corner
Damien Brown
"Beatdown"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31