Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Leslie Smith vs Rin Nakai
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
·Brisbane Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Leslie Smith
Rin Nakai
19%
81%
Why
34
Age
Δ 4y
29
10-8-1
Career record
Δ 30 pp
19-3-1
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smith: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Nakai: 31 sig / 3 TD
Leslie Smith
Rin Nakai
40
Sig strikes landed
40
102
Sig strikes attempted
86
60
Total strikes landed
74
0.0
Takedowns landed
3.3
0.5
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
42s
Control time
374s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Leslie Smith
"The Peacemaker"
10-8-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
Blue corner
L1
Rin Nakai
19-3-1
Career record
Height
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—