Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mark Hunt
Frank Mir
30%
70%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 7"
79"
42
Age
Δ 5y
37
14-14-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
18-12
W1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hunt: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Mir: 1 sig / 0 TD
Mark Hunt
Frank Mir
19
Sig strikes landed
34
42
Sig strikes attempted
58
29
Total strikes landed
49
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
14-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
L1
Frank Mir
18-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—