Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Javy Ayala
Carl Seumanutafa
87%
13%
Why
27
Age
Δ 5y
33
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Javy Ayala
Carl Seumanutafa
42
Sig strikes landed
43
88
Sig strikes attempted
100
59
Total strikes landed
59
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
122s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Javy Ayala
"Eye Candy"
10-6
Career record
Height
73"
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 139: Kongo vs. Volkov
—
Blue corner
Carl Seumanutafa
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33