Back to UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Prelims2 Lightweight

Anthony Rocco Martin vs Felipe Olivieri

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader ·Prudential Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Anthony Rocco Martin
Felipe Olivieri
66% 34%
Why
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
L1
Current streak
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4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Martin: 60 sig / 2 TD · Olivieri: 87 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Rocco Martin
Felipe Olivieri
29
Sig strikes landed
30
64
Sig strikes attempted
52
48
Total strikes landed
51
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
223s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Anthony Rocco Martin

17-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
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W UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
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L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
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L UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
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Blue corner

Felipe Olivieri

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31