Back to Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villaseca
Lightweight

Josh Thomson vs Pablo Villaseca

Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villaseca ·San Jose State University Event Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Josh Thomson
Pablo Villaseca
77% 23%
Why
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
23-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
12-4
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Thomson: 35 sig / 2 TD · Villaseca: 16 sig / 1 TD
Josh Thomson
Pablo Villaseca
45
Sig strikes landed
49
120
Sig strikes attempted
119
57
Total strikes landed
44
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
75s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Josh Thomson

"The Punk"
23-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W Bellator 142: Dynamite 1
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Blue corner
L1

Pablo Villaseca

"El Gallo"
12-4
Career record
Height
67"
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L Bellator 139: Kongo vs. Volkov
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