Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Paul Felder
Daron Cruickshank
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
17-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-11
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Felder: 46 sig / 2 TD ·
Cruickshank: 32 sig / 3 TD
Paul Felder
Daron Cruickshank
46
Sig strikes landed
40
111
Sig strikes attempted
99
59
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
81s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
17-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
Blue corner
L2
Daron Cruickshank
"Detroit Superstar"
18-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—