Back to UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Kailin Curran vs Emily Kagan

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant ·The Chelsea
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kailin Curran
Emily Kagan
85% 15%
Why
25
Age
Δ 10y
34
4-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
3-4
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Curran: 21 sig / 1 TD · Kagan: 22 sig / 1 TD
Kailin Curran
Emily Kagan
58
Sig strikes landed
58
92
Sig strikes attempted
107
87
Total strikes landed
99
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.10
Knockdowns
-0.10
176s
Control time
229s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
38%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Kailin Curran

4-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
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L UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
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Blue corner
L1

Emily Kagan

3-4
Career record
Height
63"
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
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