Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ben Reiter
Francisco France
90%
10%
Why
28
Age
Δ 4y
33
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Ben Reiter
Francisco France
47
Sig strikes landed
43
98
Sig strikes attempted
89
59
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
96s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ben Reiter
"The Hunter"
18-2-1
Career record
Height
75"
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 137: Halsey vs. Grove
—
Blue corner
Francisco France
"Kiko"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
33