Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Treston Thomison
Chris Jones
76%
24%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Treston Thomison
Chris Jones
41
Sig strikes landed
47
96
Sig strikes attempted
99
56
Total strikes landed
65
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
139s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Treston Thomison
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Blue corner
Chris Jones
"Lionheart"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
34