Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Zach Rosol
Alonzo Menifield
55%
45%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rosol: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Menifield: 9 sig / 0 TD
Zach Rosol
Alonzo Menifield
38
Sig strikes landed
40
90
Sig strikes attempted
100
50
Total strikes landed
58
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
86s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Zach Rosol
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Alonzo Menifield
"Atomic"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28