Back to UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal
Prelims1 Flyweight

Yao Zhikui vs Fredy Serrano

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal ·Olympic Park Gymnastics Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Yao Zhikui
Fredy Serrano
58% 42%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
25
Age
Δ 11y
36
3-4
Career record
Δ 24 pp
4-2
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Zhikui: 1 sig / 0 TD · Serrano: 3 sig / 1 TD
Yao Zhikui
Fredy Serrano
18
Sig strikes landed
29
56
Sig strikes attempted
70
17
Total strikes landed
62
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
100s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Yao Zhikui

"The Conqueror"
3-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—
Blue corner
W1

Fredy Serrano

"El Profe"
4-2
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—