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Prelims1 Middleweight

Dongi Yang vs Jake Collier

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal ·Olympic Park Gymnastics Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Dongi Yang
Jake Collier
71% 29%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
13-4
Career record
Δ 18 pp
14-10
L2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Yang: 29 sig / 1 TD · Collier: 22 sig / 0 TD
Dongi Yang
Jake Collier
48
Sig strikes landed
47
98
Sig strikes attempted
116
67
Total strikes landed
66
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
198s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Dongi Yang

"The Ox"
13-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
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L UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
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W UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
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L UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
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Blue corner
W1

Jake Collier

"The Prototype"
14-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
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L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
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