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Benson Henderson vs Jorge Masvidal

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal ·Olympic Park Gymnastics Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Benson Henderson
Jorge Masvidal
53% 47%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
25-7
Career record
Δ 10 pp
36-17
W1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Henderson: 86 sig / 3 TD · Masvidal: 77 sig / 1 TD
Benson Henderson
Jorge Masvidal
60
Sig strikes landed
57
140
Sig strikes attempted
131
87
Total strikes landed
80
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.7
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
211s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Benson Henderson

"Smooth"
25-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
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L UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
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L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
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W UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
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W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
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Blue corner
W1

Jorge Masvidal

"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W The Ultimate Fighter: American …
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L UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
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W UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
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W UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—