Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Leon Edwards
61%
39%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
29
Age
Δ 4y
24
22-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
23-6
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Usman: 48 sig / 6 TD ·
Edwards: 26 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Leon Edwards
16
Sig strikes landed
13
38
Sig strikes attempted
32
41
Total strikes landed
30
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
223s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
Blue corner
W2
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—