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Vitor Belfort vs Dan Henderson

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Vitor Belfort
Dan Henderson
58% 42%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
39
Age
Δ 7y
45
26-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
33-15
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Belfort: 6 sig / 0 TD · Henderson: 3 sig / 0 TD
Vitor Belfort
Dan Henderson
28
Sig strikes landed
24
53
Sig strikes attempted
45
33
Total strikes landed
28
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
72s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Vitor Belfort

"The Phenom"
26-15 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database 8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
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W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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W UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
L UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
W1

Dan Henderson

"Hendo"
33-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
45
In our database 8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
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L UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
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L UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
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W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—