Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stevie Ray
Mickael Lebout
73%
27%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
26
Age
Δ 3y
28
24-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-7-1
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ray: 48 sig / 1 TD ·
Lebout: 27 sig / 0 TD
Stevie Ray
Mickael Lebout
37
Sig strikes landed
27
73
Sig strikes attempted
65
52
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
109s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
24-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mickael Lebout
"Ragnar"
17-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—